The Keys to the Engine
Note: this article was originally published at The Stepien on June 15, 2022
Introduction:
To finish up my archetype series, wherein I attempt to re-teach myself the key components of contributing to an NBA floor, in this piece I’ll break down the prospects with the best chance to drive an offense as advantage creators.
Despite being the most generic version of “scouting”, the process of identifying these talents is unique compared to the prior pieces. For example, when analyzing a rim protecting or connecting prospect, you can isolate a player’s footwork and mobility, discipline in not overreacting. But to be one of the rare players to create open looks for an NBA-level offense, there has to be a special ingredient, a unique interaction of the physical with the creative, beyond the obvious to keep defenses on their toes.
In this case, I’ll be relying less on traditional statistical analysis for this piece, instead looking at the type of looks created on a consistent basis through a player’s own ability to bend a defense. This is different from my “playoff talent” piece, highlighting tough shot makers who can work separate from the flow of a system. Rather, these offensive engines need to maintain a constant vigilance through a possession, all while maintaining precision of movement and constant court-mapping of their teammates relative to defenders.
Let’s check out the best candidates available in the 2022 NBA draft.
Potential Primaries on Good Offenses:
1. Paolo Banchero
Paolo is heads and shoulders above the rest of prospects as far as potential to lead an entire offense. Time and again he showed elite court-mapping, not just aware of the space he has to operate and location of teammates but how that would shift within a play.
As a power forward-sized player, Banchero is remarkably shifty and specific with his footwork. As Jake Rosen outlined in his piece comparing Paolo to Jabari Smith, Paolo’s stutter rip and other fundamental building blocks for getting easy openings is quite advanced.
The one source of trepidation is his shot inconsistency, as in half of his games he either hit zero threes or shot under 30% from distance. But Paolo, with his decisive moves in the midrange and “passing gravity” where opponents’ can’t overhelp without him finding their man, has enough of a repertoire it might not matter. At Duke, for example, his scoring distribution over the season was very good for a freshman, often landing in the 16-22 points bracket.
Simply by being his size, where he can dunk with one dribble from the midrange, means you need a rim protector monitoring Paolo when he’s on the move. He was excellent shooting from this range, shooting 38% on deep twos, 80% of those makes unassisted. This type of midrange hub role suits Paolo well, as I imagine him as a kind of “Sabonis plus” to use his wide body for screens while excellent at finding cutters. Duke’s stagnant offense, meanwhile, overly relied on his isos to find spot up shooters, good enough to take them to the Final Four while still underutilizing his max creation ability.
2. Jaden Ivey
Ivey is a clearcut #2, while still being strides behind Paolo as far as creator bets. To say Ivey’s game is built on speed and shiftiness is an understatement, a 100th percentile functional athlete. But what makes him truly unique among ultra-speedy guard prospects is his physicality. Ivey is able to go from 0 to 100 to get into the paint, then decelerate and take the foul with his surprisingly contact-seeking style of play. To be able to beat everyone to the rim every time and still work on that midrange craft makes Ivey a good bet for top 3 usage on a decent, perhaps very good team. If you simply let him go he’s a devastating finisher at the rim for a guard, shooting 66% with 3/4ths unassisted, his volume on rim attempts and dunks unusual for a 6’4’’ guard.
Much like Banchero, Ivey’s shot is a bit worse than one would hope for in a primary. However, considering the shot versatility and difficulty (half of his threes were unassisted, a very high rate, and often deep behind the line), I have confidence in him being a shooter enough to guard. If a defender must honor his shot even in the least, Ivey has already driven into the paint, even against NBA level defenders.
My bigger concern is that, despite Ivey showing some extremely creative looks, his passing consistency was at times very mediocre. Ivey creates an immense amount of gravity with his attacking to create as open of passing lanes as anyone this class, which sometimes led to astonishing split-second kickouts, though other times Jaden missed some wide open drop-offs, a rarer occurrence for Paolo.
But anyone who can generate paint touches to the degree of Ivey has a large margin of error for both shooting and passing. It would be surprising to me if he didn’t take on at the least a secondary creator role over his career. A streamlined offensive system without a lumbering big clogging the paint will help Ivey immensely: with NBA spacing, Ivey has the potential to be one of the toughest guard covers in the league.
3. Johnny Davis
We take another step down here as Davis is unlikely to have the same ease of creation as Ivey as the latter has the superior fastball. But watching Davis you witness a high feel, high processing player who can operate all over the court. No one in this class, save possibly Banchero, is as good at getting to his spots: when Davis pulls up from midrange, even if getting there with a series of crosses and spins, you get the feeling he’s ended up exactly where he wants to be.
Davis gives off a Predator vibe, as in the alien hunter for sport, in that he seems aware of things happening that others are not on the floor and has all the weapons to make you pay. He has a lot of the footwork craft needed to create space, with good accel- and deceleration, not a perfect but functional handle with left and right. He’s great shooting off of a quick one-two footwork, tidy and aggressive enough to get his shot off from small spaces.
Davis does not have the size of Paolo or the rare athleticism of Ivey, he does have a rugged physicality and sense of being in the right place, and enough athletic prowess to capitalize. His efficiency was dragged down by poor shooting teammates (though still shot 61% at the rim, 35% midrange, 31% on threes and 79% from the line) and no other true creators, where the opposing defenses can all key in on Davis at once. That won’t be the case in the NBA, where if life becomes easier for Davis, who is capable of taking on a large defensive burden as well, his offensive talents could flourish and, if things break the right way, could eventually be enough to lead an offense.
4. Shaedon Sharpe
While Sharpe is one of the bigger enigmas in the class simply due to not playing against college or lower level pro competition as of yet, he showcased enough over his high school and AAU career to earn his spot towards the top of this list. We’re not predicting median outcomes here, as the ability to reach primary or even secondary initiator status in the NBA is rarified air, but rather how easily one could imagine it all coming together. With some of the most impressive movement and off the dribble shooting displayed of anyone in this class, it’s easy to imagine that translating and leading to a prominent offensive role.
Sharpe’s buzz as a prospect is largely due to his gaudy EYBL stats from last summer. Not only did he average 22 points on 46% shooting from deep, but also by taking a diet of largely self-created attempts. His traditional on-ball creator skills are still limited, as his mediocre-to-worse burst doesn’t make creating separation easier, but with a real chance to be a special shotmaker, the gaps to create into could be substantial.
When we last saw Shaedon play, his handle was just okay, best when isolating into a side step three, and driving instincts needed work. But what I liked about the tape was how Sharpe seems intent on experimenting, trying out new footwork each game, especially learning how to drive with his wide shoulders leading rather than foot speed. His passing may be limited to running the occasional basic pick and roll or hitting wide open cutters when helpers come from the perimeter, but it may not take the most precise passing for Sharpe to still get some easy assists.
The ability to square one’s shoulders to the hoop off of movement in the air while 1. Retaining your shooting pocket, 2. Not over-drifting forward and 3. Not being interrupted by nearby defenders despite being more vulnerable is very rare, especially for an 18-year-old, but Sharpe always looks solid in his form. Beyond that, finishing will be made easy by his core strength in addition to his elite vertical leaping ability, where Sharpe has shown he can take a hit and still hold his finish.
Sharpe gets the mystery box label a bit too much for what is clear, at least to my eyes, that he could be an elite shot making talent in a way conducive to leading an offense.
5. Leonard Miller
*Note: since I wrote this Miller has announced he will be foregoing the draft this year to play a season with the G-League Ignite.
Miller is a case even more fascinating than Sharpe’s, with one of the most unique styles of play among all prospects in this draft. Miller drives like he’s pretending the basket is in a different direction, either casually skipping through traffic with unexpected euros or meandering around until an opening presents himself. His unorthodox approach to driving is also there in his passing and shooting. He is unbelievably creative for a player at his age, the youngest in the class, often hitting teammates in the hands when they don’t expect it, or pulling up into his defender as if to prove a point.
This unconventional style is like a poker game, and Leonard’s off-beat style means you can’t point out his tells. For someone who recently classified as eligible for the 2022 draft and only played against high school competition, he looked like he at least belonged on the court at the Combine scrimmages. While not putting up major stats in the box score, Miller does come across as a legitimate 6’9’’ with a handle. His shot needs work, a far too low and in front of his body release, but touch appears extremely promising based on his midrange and crafty rim finishes.
Miller’s defense is another issue, as he seems unsure of where to stand second to second, with all of his unusual instincts for impact on the offensive side of the ball. But he’s young and clearly loves to play, hunting for steals about every possession out of place, with time to fix basic positioning – it’s not unusual for someone his age with only high school coaching to be out of place.
Miller deserves a spot among the elite creator prospects in this class with his own set of directions for how to get to the rim that all the others are not privy to. If you naturally understand the flow of movement within a set and how to sneak through it, your potential is sky high.
Potential Primaries on Bad Offenses/Secondaries on Good Ones:
1. Malaki Branham
Branham is another delight to watch, another elite shot-hunter in the vein of Johnny Davis but with even more shooting touch. Branham was a slow but steady riser over the course of the season, remarkably doubling his scoring rate per minute from his first ten games to his last. Branham works with pace and steadiness, eating up inch by inch of space and with a quick pull up he releases at unexpected moments.
Branham is likely the worst overall passer and athlete of those mentioned here, with little burst and subpar agility (his lane agility time at the combine was only at the 49th percentile), but both are functional enough. It seems like Branham’s peripheral awareness is a weakness, turning the ball over to obvious help defenders at times, but he’s good at passing within an action, and gets wide passing windows with his universal shooting gravity.
Branham’s efficiency was elite for a freshman: 72% at the rim, 54% un-assisted; 43% on deep twos, 82% un-assisted; 41% from three, 11% un-assisted; 83% from the line; 95th percentile as PNR handler; 89th percentile on catch and shoot, 79th percentile floater. His shot prep and frame are strong, with perfect energy transfer into release, though with some inconsistencies on wrist follow through on release.
Where I trust Malaki to translate is his extreme patience in letting plays develop, and creative footwork to then pounce at the right time. His Middleton-esque approach, with some added rim pressure, makes me think he could supplement a very good offense.
2. Alondes Williams
Alondes continues the tradition of unusual arcs for creator prospects in this class. An upperclassmen transfer who played little for Oklahoma in previous years, Williams is the most creative passer in this class, rivaled only by Trevion Williams out of the post. He has a lightning first step which combines well with his finishing skills, shooting 66% at the rim with 3/4ths of makes self-created. He showed the same burst in the Combine scrimmage, routinely beating other prospects from a standstill, drawing a flurry of fouls. Among other prospects likely to be drafted, only the 7’0’’ Mark Williams and 6’8’’ Keegan Murray had more attempts at the rim.
The item holding back Williams from the tier above is his wild inconsistency of play. While Alondes only has one setting of pushing the envelope with the most complicated passes possible, his ability to execute those varied game to game, sometimes quarter to quarter. His handle was borderline untenable for a point guard at Oklahoma, cleaned up at Wake Forest, now capable of more complex crosses, hesis, quick spins in traffic. While his spotty play (as well on defense) is a red flag for an older prospect (Alondes is 23 by the draft), not all paths are the same. His creativity was there at Oklahoma, just untapped due to his lagging dexterity and decision-making. If his coordination continues to improve, he could be a stellar creator with his top notch creativity and physicality as a driver. His shot coming along would be gravy, and I think there’s a chance of that, as well. A touch more consistency in all areas of life, the kind that can be enabled in a consistent long-term training environment, could make Alondes look like one of the biggest steals in the draft.
3. Jaden Hardy
Hardy continues the tradition of flawed but fascinating creation bets in this class. A pure scoring guard prospect, Hardy is one of the best shooters in the class despite only shooting 32% from three. He took the most difficult threes of the G-League Ignite prospects, with efficiency rising over the season as he adjusted to the deeper line. He often shot off movement, favoring a size-up pull-up, and was also adept spotting up on the perimeter.
But where I was most impressed with Hardy’s development was inside the perimeter. At only 6’4’’ he is a subpar finisher, shooting a dismal ~50% at the rim. However the process improved, as did the playmaking: while not an elite athlete overall, he is one of the shiftiest players in this class, and used that change of pace ability to get enough of an edge on drives, pick and rolls.
I feel comfortable with Hardy this high on the list due to a projectable shot (82% from the line with clean mechanics) as well as some flashes of elite playmaking. His consistency as an operator was still less than ideal, suggesting closer to good feel for the game than great, but his ability to fit in against professionals while also branching out his game (and playing tougher defense than he is given credit for) is a great sign for his future development.
4. Tari Eason
Eason presents another unique type, the least developed initiator craft of anyone so far. Why he’s so high up on the list, and could be an appealing complementary offensive engine, is his ability to drive with powerful strides to the rim while also showing signs of figuring it out as a shooter, ball handler and passer. It’s not consistent enough, though not much was in LSU’s offense which ranked 267th in threes per game, suggesting Tari will need a specific context to flourish.
In an ideal world, Eason would build craft on to his catch and drive game, as I do buy him as a good enough shooter (36% from three, 41% on two point jumpers, 70% from the line) to earn close outs. He rarely got isolated coverage without a help defender ready to pounce, as I imagine driving from the wing will be easier in the NBA than college. He is a very bursty and a strong athlete, with his 6’7’’, 217-pound frame tough to stop on the move. Eason has one of the best fastballs among creator prospects, as if he is given one dribble to get to the rim, he’ll get there fast and likely draw a foul while doing it – no one else in this class meets his threshold of both rim attempts (213) and free throw rate (0.52).
Circling back to his flashes of creation upside, Tari’s capable of pulling off simple dribble drive moves, mostly leaning on his right, but in the context of someone with his specific athletic tools for driving, the bar is lower. Although his shot is unconventional, adjusting for his +7.25 inch wingspan by artificially short-arming his shot pocket, it seems to work, and provides an easy spot to launch from out of his righty-dribble moves. Move 1A will almost certainly be to drive and try to draw a foul, but I think you could get decent offense out of his pull-ups as well, at least over time. His passing is creative if not always functional, containing that spark of magic needed to imagine how things could go right. Even if it doesn’t, Eason has a viable route to relevance as a connecting prospect as well. I could see his game translating to the next level as well as anyone’s, even as his creation craft may develop only gradually.
5. Dyson Daniels
I’m happy to have another chance to write about Daniels, whose game I profiled in depth before the season, and also wrote about as a connector in the Marcus Smart sub-archetype. Daniels’ multi-year growth spurt has him now measuring at 6’6’’ without shoes at the combine (and possibly still growing), opening up all kinds of possibilities for how to use his unique skillset. Dyson would be a unique development path to a primary or secondary creator, but that’s what his journey has been so far, and that’s the company he’s in for this piece.
Daniels is an elite processor, perhaps the best in this class, with the ability to see plays unfold before they happen and physical tools to take advantage. His best athletic attribute is his change of direction and acceleration, shown by his 2.81 second shuttle run in the combine, beating out the 6’0’’ Kennedy Chandler at 2.89 seconds for best in class. Dyson’s handle is subpar for a guard but just fine for a wing, with his new frame combining with elite acceleration meaning it only takes one dribble to get to the lane.
His shot is inconsistent, but has shown signs of growth both over his season with G-League Ignite as well as in recent years in general. When he stays light on his feet the form becomes much less clunky, the trick being to get more consistent with his shot prep. Where Daniels is more comfortable is his floater, often driving his shoulder into the second line defenders to then quickly flip up his shot on the turn. This compensates for his lack of finishing skill, too often thinking he’s still 6’3’’ and fading instead of forcing the issue.
Daniels is unlikely to clean up all the warts holding him back from being a true primary candidate, but can serve as an excellent supplementary creator with his reliable passing vision and first step. On top of that, Daniels’ top-notch rebounding leads to many transition leak out opportunities where his full court vision truly shines, good for a possession here and there each quarter.
6. Keegan Murray
Murray exploded as a scorer as a sophomore, a finalist for National Player of the Year as he went from role player as a freshman to focal point with Iowa’s vacated usage from Luka Garza graduating. The consistency of his scoring output was remarkable, even compared to other top prospects, a safe bet for 20+ points any given night.
However, the source of this scoring gives some pause in projecting his success to the next level. Murray, more than anyone else in the country, absolutely killed in transition. Keegan scored often by driving his shoulder into a rim protector, keeping his balance to finish with a leaner just above the defender’s outstretched hands. While he was an excellent finisher, shooting 72% at the rim on majority unassisted attempts, the margin for getting these shots off was small, as Murray is not capable of creating the same separation as the other prospects listed above with subpar burst and agility.
Regardless, Murray earns his spot here through his ability to play in all kinds of ways both on and off ball, and general good sense of how to run an action. These qualities make him more likely to thrive as a connector, though sometimes really good connectors are able to accumulate those small margins into a full product. It’s tough to take your focus off of Keegan as a defense: he can hit spot ups (94th %ile on spot up non-dribble jumpers), pick and pop (74th %ile), post up (97th %ile), get putbacks with an elite second jump (86th %ile PPP, 10% offensive rebound rate), run transition as either the ball handler (94th %ile), first middle (96th %ile), left wing (83rd %ile) or right wing (100th %ile). His 80th percentile grade for isos is least likely to translate, but you have a detailed menu of options here.
7. Ousmane Dieng
Dieng is the first prospect in this list to have played overseas professionally this past season, signing with the New Zealand Breakers in the NBL’s Next Stars program after previously training with an academy in France. It was a tough adjustment for Ousmane going from the third-tier professional league to top in Australia as an 18-year-old, where he failed to score even double-digit points in each of his first ten games, but he adjusted well as the season went on, to say the least.
Tough looks became easier for Dieng with some added muscle to his 6’9’’, 7’0’’ wingspan frame, as his two-point field goal percentage nearly doubled from the first to second half of the season. Dieng has a great handle for size, the bigger issue being general carelessness and lack of precision. But when he locks in, Ousmane is capable of both some of the best reads in the class as well as most accurate, a look into his potential as a playmaker.
His shot is smooth in gather and energy transfer out, the one knit being a tendency to bring it across his face. However. his general flexibility and sense of balance allows Dieng to hit some very tough shots, stepbacks or size-up or cross pull-ups, as well as shoot a decent floater.
As I write about Dieng I feel myself believing in his game, as on paper he checks a lot of boxes those drafting near the top search for desperately. But the tendency for absent-minded plays (I have seen several series of turnovers from either stepping out of bounds or moving pivot foot) suggests a lack of consistent attention to details. In that case he needs a good landing spot where he can build on the finer details of his enticing skill set. If he finds it, there’s a good chance I’m underselling Ousmane here.
Potential Secondaries on Bad Offenses/Tertiaries on Good Ones:
Gabriele Procida, Bennedict Mathurin, EJ Liddell, Justin Lewis, Nikola Jovic, Jordan Hall, Bryce McGowens, Vince Williams Jr., Jabari Smith, Jean Montero, Matteo Spagnolo, Jalen Williams, Orlando Robinson, Hugo Besson, Patrick Baldwin Jr., TyTy Washington, Max Christie, Jordan Usher, AJ Griffin, Trevor Keels, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Duren, Kenneth Lofton, Gui Santos, Payton Willis, Ryan Rollins, David Roddy, Ismael Kamagate, Blake Wesley, Kennedy Chandler
While it is difficult to have any offensive flaws and still have a chance to run a good NBA offense, some are allowed for secondary candidates, and even more for potential good third wheels. We have seen inconsistent shooters, handlers, passers pull this off with enough of a talent offset elsewhere, and in that case can consider a wide number of prospects for eventually filling this role.
In addition, while this class might lack the number of elite creator prospects as the one before or after, I think it still has an impressive volume of players with at least some chance of being quite good. Even starting from the bottom of the above list, Kennedy Chandler as the quickest in this class with a not-broken shot and elite playmaking flashes, if adds some consistency running a halfcourt offense could have a chance to start for a very good team.
This section is more meant to reflect upon the elusive nature of development as a whole. Unique compared to the discussion of rim protectors, shotmakers and connectors, being an offensive engine requires an artistry that mixes with personality and environment in varied, unpredictable ways. This is not meant to shirk my scouting responsibilities as an analyst, rather than acknowledge the randomness and limits of access as outside-the-room scouts.
To speak more on some of the higher profile names, Jabari Smith I struggle to see maintaining a consistent enough handle in the ways essential for conducting an offense. Where his handle is best is defended by back to basket play, as Smith, while a historic shotmaking talent, is more limited to simple kick outs or drop offs in his passing than manipulating several levels of help. Permanently in-his-face closeouts will help, though I have doubts his drive ability will be good enough, still.
Chet Holmgren has a better case for being a tier higher, especially as he can utilize his sound passing acumen in combination with 7’0’’+ size to pass over the top of help. If his shot, especially one-pound pull-ups, come along, Holmgren could support a very good offense as a mid-post hub in addition to his three-point shot and roll man threat. This is one of the sells for Chet in the top two: the list of actions on both sides of the ball you can use him in is endless. Those are each additional paths to success, giving him something to do on the court no matter landing spot.
Bennedict Mathurin and Gabriele Procida were tough last minute cuts from the tier above, both capable movement shooters from deep who struggle to dribble with their left hand. Mathurin became the more advanced passer by the end of season, though Procida attempted and occasionally pulled off some more creative looks in a tougher league with smaller passing windows. The sell for Procida is his constant off-ball movement with perfect precision, his route-taking always sound as well as his nose for the ball on offensive rebounds. This high feel, despite lack of skill in ballhandling and passing, suggests room for improvement. Mathurin, meanwhile, is a nuclear athlete, so the handle concern is limited by quick burst. But process is often rigid for Bennedict in his drives, not as varied in his attack capabilities as you would expect.